Probabilities
I can’t sleep, my mind is racing. Combination of having slept far too long yesterday and being 3dpiui – my brain won’t stop thinking about babies. So instead of sleep I crunched some numbers.
One of my infertility books (What To Do When You Can’t Get Pregnant) goes over ovulation induction and super-ovulation. It amuses me that the subsection about clomid speaks only about 1 or 2 eggs; the section on injectibles then goes on to consider more than 2 eggs. This amuses me greatly, since I’m a clomid girl, and have 4 eggs.
So in any case, the book states that after 12 months of trying with no pregnancy you effectively have about a 4% chance of achieving pregnancy in any given month. (Which is dropped from roughly a 20% chance each cycle when you first start TTC – as most people have no problems and get pregnant right away. By the time you’ve gone 12 months it’s pretty likely there’s a problem, thus the significantly lower number.) So then the book goes on to say that clomid roughly doubles your chances (by giving you two eggs) and injectibles roughly triple your chances (three eggs, I’m assuming).
I’m using the probabilities listed under injectibles and superovulation, since I have 4 follicles. 4% x 4 = 16%. I’d even be willing to say we could have a higher chance than that, but since I have no logical reason for thinking that I’ll leave it at 16%.
The book also says that couples using clomid for infertility treatment have a 10% chance of multiples; that percentage rises to 20% with superovulation. So if I were to achieve pregnancy, I would have a 20% chance of it being a multiple and 80% chance of it being a singleton.
Given all those probabilities, this cycle I have an 84% chance of not being pregnant, a 12.8% chance of being pregnant with a singleton, and a 3.2% chance of being pregnant with multiples. Den wasn’t too impressed with those numbers. I still do think our chance of being pregnant this month is higher than 16% – but hey, maybe I just want to think that. ;)